April Hero Tier and Metagame Analysis

The countdown to the International has begun! As the qualifiers get under way, every team will be training hard for their matches, and setting their sites on the matches to come in Seattle. We've seen new heroes like Slark, Ursa and Omniknight all being used in recent games and it seems like we're seeing some practice runs of some new strategies before the International proper commences.

With almost two million in the prize pool (buy a compendium now if you haven't got one!), will teams risk bold new strategies or stick with tried and true favourites? How has all of this affected the hero ties for April? Let's find out!

Note: All data was taken from Dota Academy for all regions between the 1st of April and the 30th of April,  and was viewed on the 1st of May 2013. I haven't included the Pick/Ban tier table this month as I'm not sure how useful it is, but make sure to let me know what you think of the choice in the comments!

 

Tier 1

    

   

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The top tier of heroes has remained fairly stable over the last few months, which makes it quite hard to find anything new to write about it. Keeper of the Light retains his position at the top. However, even though he consistently has the highest win rate of any hero week on week, averaged out over the month of April it is only 57%, and even when used in the most hated combo in Dota (with Phantom Lancer), the winrate of the two together is only 54%. Just being able to pick these two together isn’t an automatic win if used ineffectively, even if it sometimes feels like it.

Lifestealer remains the most popular carry, as Rage proves too good for teams to pass up. However, with the rising popularity of Clockwerk, who can effectively use Cogs to completely zone Lifestealer out of a team fight (especially if handled by the ever capable Liquid.BuLba) we may soon see this change.

Gyrocopter has continued to move up the ranks as we see him increasingly used in so called 'greedy lineups'. This is where up to three farm dependent carry potential heroes are picked together (a strategy Dignitas in particular has been employing recently). Gyrocopter is a great hero for this style of play as he is versatile enough to play long lane, mid or his more traditional carry tri lane role, or even a support if required. This strategy is a double edged sword as it can be difficult to create enough space for each hero to get the farm they need, and can just result in a totally under farmed team. But if done right such a team can dominate the mid game and steamroll its way to a win before the enemy team has time to recover. Chinese teams are known for excellent map control though, so expect them to heavily punish any teams who try to utilize this strategy against them.

Similarly, Io has a lot of trouble playing to his(?) strengths against Eastern teams. Relocate relies heavily on being able to catch enemy out of position, something that the Eastern teams are very good at positioning and denying Io the opportunities to do his thing. Io is also extremely squishy and ineffective in a trilane, so he will most likely drop in rank in the coming months.

Lone Druid is able to break into the top ten on the back of the strength of the Armlet bear build. Whether it is a glitch or working as intended is still a matter of fierce discussion, and the Super League was thought to have banned it (although this turned out to be a misunderstanding). We may see this reworked in the future but for now it's made what was an already strong hero even stronger.
Finally, the rise of Puck should be mentioned. A decent hero in his own right, with a skill set that gives him nukes, escapes, silences, and great ganking potential, she has seen competetive play in previous months as an alternative to Queen of Pain or Batrider as a mid lane hero. Recently, Puck has really come into her own as a counter to Magnus. Her high mobility and AOE silence act as a great initiate or counter initiate to Magnus to stop Reverse Polarity cold, and Dream Coil ensures that there is no escape. Now if only she can get some custom sets...

 

Tier 2

 

   

    

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Bane is an interesting hero. With three disables (Enfeeble, Nightmare, and Fiend's Grip) he can take the majority of the enemy team out of a fight. With even stat gain across the board and Brain Sap healing him by up to 300 he is fairly tanky, and Nightmare coupled with 315 move speed makes him quite hard to catch out. He’s also able to severely hamper any carries on the opposing team with Enfeeble, particularly against heroes like Lifestealer, Gyrocopter, or Sven who rely on that right click damage to get things done. We usually see him employed as a trilane support hero, but this usually means that he has neither the levels nor gold to really have a chance to shine. I would love to see him used in a mid lane, where he can use Nightmare and Enfeeble to destroy the enemy's cs, and his high move speed along with Fiend’s Grip are great for some early ganks. However there are other heroes that can use the experience and gold from the mid lane better, such as Queen of Pain or Puck, and in team fights it is rare that anyone will let you sit there and channel Fiend’s Grip for five seconds. So although we’re unlikely to see him in that mid lane, his abilities are a great counter to Tier 1 heroes such as Lifestealer, Gyrocopter and Lone Druid; he’s likely to continue to be popular.

Lina and Leshrac fulfil a similar role. Both provide an unreliable stun, can put out a lot of damage even into the late game, and fit the current trend of supports who are able to continue to have an impact into the late game and are able to ‘look after themselves’. For example, Crystal Maiden is in theory a great support. She has a lockdown (Frostbite), a slow (Crystal Nova), an extremely useful global aura (Arcane Aura) and a big AOE damage ultimate (Freezing Field). Yet we never see her in competitive play. This is because she is so damn slow with 280 move speed, very squishy and contributes very little in the late game. Conversely Leshrac and Lina have nukes that are useful right into the late game, high movement speed (or at least Lina does with Fiery Soul active) and with the right items can be quite strong heroes, able to stay in the thick of a team fight at the 40 minute mark without being melted down almost instantly. Ogre Magi is becoming a regular pick for similar reasons, but we’ll deal with him later.

It is also for these reasons that Shadow Demon is becoming less and less popular. Disruption is a great disable (and a decent counter to Phantom Lancer, as disruption illusions of him are able to duplicate) but has problems similar to Crystal Maiden as he has low movement speed, survivability and end game utility. And with the all powerful late game carry only seen rarely these days Disruption is less effective as a counter tool. A mis-timed Disruption can also easily ruin a gank or teamfight, so he is a slightly riskier support to pick for your trilane unless your engagement timing is perfect.

Clockwerk has seen a lot of play, and has become a signature hero for Team Liquid. Trapping a Lifestealer or Sven (who if they’re Raged/BKBed can’t be force staffed out) with Cogs is an invaluable skill, but against carries with a blink or ranged attack he becomes a lot less useful, so if Lifestealer’s popularity drops (which I suspect it will soon), Clockwerk’s will likely follow.

Dark Seer’s win rate stood at 29% for April at the time of my data gathering. Although he is a great long lane/jungle utility hero, his ultimate requires either a good set up such as a Reverse Polarity or for the enemy team to be out of position. This means that in a professional game we might only see Wall of Replica a handful of times. When the wall is the main reason for picking him, it suddenly seems like a pretty poor return for your investment.

 

Tier 3

 

    

    

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Weaver is another hero who has, within a few months, moved from being a relatively obscure pick to a fairly common one. Players like Universe and Burning have shown how strong this high damage/high mobility hero can be: darting through team fights picking off supports, harassing enemy towers and generally being a thorn in the enemy team’s side. Weaver is very susceptible to lock down though, and if caught out drops very quickly. However Shukuchi and Time Lapse give Weaver a lot of survivability, so most fights he’ll be able to scuttle away to fight another day. With items like Orchid Malevolence he can fulfil a utility carry role akin to Clinkz, with similar split push potential.

Templar Assassin has seen a resurgence in popularity of late. A favourite of players like Sneyking and Korok, teams have once again found a place for him in their mid game focused line ups. She does drop off quite sharply in the late game though, and as a hero that is exclusively used in the mid lane it can make the rest of your lanes predictable. Because of this it’s unlikely Templar Assassin will become a Tier 1 or 2 hero, and remain a more niche pick.

In a move that was somewhat unexpected, teams such as Na’Vi have started picking up Alchemist as their carry. Known as an out of control farming hero, he seems out of place in the faster paced current meta game. But by leveling Unstable Concoction and picking an early Shadow Blade he can have a strong mid game presence that then builds into one of the most powerful late game carries in Dota 2. Outside of Chemical Rage, he can have some survivability issues in the early game but is usually able to farm up items to counter this fairly quickly. Expect him to be getting ridiculous GPM soon in a game near you.

 

Tier 4

 

    

    

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Teams have been using Dragon Knight recently as a part of a two carry strategy, putting him in lanes such as mid to try and get some early levels and farm. He can have a lot of trouble in this role against strong mid lane heroes though, and because he needs a lot of farm to be effective, he can have trouble catching up if he falls behind in the laning phase. With a slow attack speed and average damage in early levels he is relying on Breathe Fire to be getting last hits without supports protecting him. He isn’t able to do much in the mid game which is so important in the metagame right now, so it’s unlikely we’ll see that much of him in future.

Faceless Void was set to become the next big carry after Anti Mage, but is all the way down here in Tier 4. He can be build for either mid or late game presence and Time Lock combined with Backtrack mean he can go toe to toe with any other carry and hold his own. Chronosphere is similar to Wall of Replica, in that is requires very careful positioning in its use. It’s a high risk/high reward ultimate that needs to be set up or have enemies out of position to be able to catch a few heroes in there without trapping any of your team mates at the same time. He’s by no means a bad hero though and could see more pick ups in the future.

It seems that Bounty Hunter is well and truly on the way out. The single target right click damage and bonus track gold he brings is not enough to keep him in the top hero tiers, as he has a lot of trouble surviving against trilanes and lacks the split push potential of Nature’s Prophet, the semi carry damage of Weaver or the raw power of Lone Druid. He could see some use as a niche pick against invis-heavy line ups, but there are simply too many better choices for now.

Coming back out of semi retirement is the forgotten initiator Earth Shaker, just making it onto the list for this month. His low mana pool and melee attack range give him a hard time in the laning phase, and he needs to farm a Blink Dagger and Arcane Boots to be effective in a team fight so it can be hard for him to get up in the teamfights when he is losing out in gold and experience in his usual role as a trilane support. Echo Slam is a great counter to heroes like Nature’s Prophet and Phantom Lancer so he may see some use there but it’s likely we won’t see him on the charts again next month.

As I predicted, Lion has moved up the ranks and looks set to... whats that? A 15% win rate? Never mind then.

 

Predictions

Ogre Magi has shown up in a few games now as a trilane support. He's a naturally ranked support with both a stun and a slow, though he has a very high skill cap. Bloodlust is also an extremely underrated move, and is almost the equivalent of giving team mates a free Hyperstone every 30 seconds, which will synergize well with top tier carries such as Alchemist, Sven, Lone Druid, or Lifestealer. His offensive spells are only single target though, and late game, once the enemy team has BKBs, he is fairly ineffective so while I don't see him becoming a top tier pick, keep an eye out for Ogre Magi, especially in mid game oriented line ups.

Another hero that has been experimented with by some teams is Treant Protector. With the highest starting base damage in the game and Living Armour giving so much early game tank potential, he can easily dominate his lane. This survivability and damage means that he doesn't need to be babysat by supports and could be a good long lane or even mid lane choice. He can really use the farm and levels, and use Nature's Guise and Overgrowth for ganking. He's mostly been picked by CIS teams so far, so whether any NA or Eastern teams will give him a try remains to be seen.

Dendi has a new favourite hero, and it's Skywrath Mage. With huge damage and low health, players have to be wary of him being focused down in a team fight before he has a chance to contribute. In the mid lane Skywrath Mage can bottlecrow to ensure he has enough mana to force even the most survivable heroes out of lane, and with the early levels he can make a big impact in the early game. A BKB makes him next to useless though and with his severe case of the squishies he's not likely to become a hero we'll see every game, but will add to the ever expanding variety of professional Dota 2.

Finally, Slark is on the way up. He's been picked up a few times in the TI3 Western Qualifiers and has performed pretty well there. Dark Pact makes him a great counter to Batrider as he can purge off Sticky Napalm as well as Flaming Lasso, and the move speed and regen from Shadow Dance makes him a ganking machine. He's seen action in the mid and long lane for early levels and farm, which allow him to get ganking as early as possible but if he doesn't get the items he needs then he can have a very bad time. However if he does get that sweet sweet farm then he can quickly snowball into a very dangerous hero, and I expect we'll be seeing more of him in the fuutre.

 

That's all for April, make sure to comment with how you think the Western and Eastern Qualifiers as well as the G1 League finals will change the tiers for this month! One thing is for sure, we're going to see some great Dota over the next few months leading up to the international. Thanks for reading and until next time, Happy gaming!